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SUMMARY:22.04.2026 - Isabelle Mejean (Sciences Po)
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20260422T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20260422T131500
DTSTAMP:20260507T134253Z
UID:4e1100e61ba741b0a70b9fc270d277cd@www.econ.uni-bonn.de
CREATED:20260316T114719Z
DESCRIPTION:We develop a model of international trade and geopolitical dis
 putes [...]. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously\, and rival countries en
 gage in negotiations to avoid war. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factor
 s [...] depend on the opportunity cost of war\, itself shaped by observed 
 trade flows. We provide a simple procedure to estimate these factors in a 
 model of trade calibrated to current data. This approach is then used to q
 uantify the geoeconomic factors characterizing the US-China relationship. 
 We find that the growing US dependence to Chinese products and markets ove
 r the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes wi
 th China for the US. In this context\, decoupling [...] may offer geopolit
 ical benefits. Yet\, the analysis highlights a fundamental security dilemm
 a: because export and import dependencies influence bargaining power [...]
 \, decoupling may reduce the diplomatic concessions needed to maintain pea
 ce but can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260420T075300Z
URL:https://www.econ.uni-bonn.de/macro/en/seminars/mef-seminar-summer-26/i
 sabelle-mejean-sciences-po
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