Harald Fadinger (University of Vienna)
Industrial policies, while often aimed at domestic industries, can spur technological progress abroad. We document this mechanism in the case of rare earth elements (REE) – critical inputs for manufacturing and the green transformation, with low elasticity of substitution, inelastic supply, and high production and processing concentration in China. Using REE-related patents classified by a large language model, sectoral TFP data, and matched trade data, we show that the introduction of REE export restrictions led to a global surge in innovation and exports in REE-intensive downstream sectors outside of China. To quantify the global impact of the adverse REE supply shock, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of trade and directed technological change. Under endogenous technologies, input-supply restrictions shift the direction of innovation in downstream sectors toward scarce inputs when inputs are gross complements, which can lead to the expansion of these sectors.
Time
Wednesday, 07.05.25 - 12:15 PM
- 01:30 PM
Topic
Industrial Policy, Supply Chains and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from Rare Earths
Location
Juridicum, Adenauerallee 24-42
Room
Faculty Room
Reservation
not required
Organizer
Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics
Contact