Universität Bonn

Department of Economics

MEF-Seminar Summer 26

10.06.2026 - Adrien Auclert (Stanford University)

We show that higher-order perturbation solutions to rational expectations models exhibit a certainty correspondence property: they can be obtained from the derivatives of the model’s perfect foresight solution. This extends the well-known certainty equivalence result beyond first order. For heterogeneous-agent models with large idiosyncratic state spaces, our approach is significantly faster than existing state-space perturbation or global solution methods. We apply our method to solve a HANK model and a menu cost model to third order in aggregate risk, quantifying the time variation in the fiscal multiplier and the responsiveness of inflation to costs, as well as the effect of perceived aggregate risk on the steady state and impulse responses.
Time
Wednesday, 10.06.26 - 12:00 PM - 01:15 PM
Topic
"Certainty Correspondence: Higher-Order Perturbation in the Sequence Space"
Speaker
https://aauclert.people.stanford.edu/
Location
Juridicum, Adenauerallee 24-42
Room
Faculty Room
Reservation
not required
Organizer
Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics
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