Universität Bonn

Department of Economics

MEF-Seminar Summer 26

01.07.2026 - Tasso Adamopoulos (York University)

International trade provides critical access to food, yet many food-importing countries protect agriculture even where productivity is low. We study how the risk of trade disruptions shapes food security, the global distribution of production, and optimal policy. We document that reliance on imported staples is linked to higher food insecurity, particularly in poorer countries. Exploiting the Ukraine–Russia war, we find that districts in Ethiopia more exposed to disrupted imports suffered sharper declines in food security. We develop a multi-sector model of trade with stochastic trade costs and non-homothetic preferences. Uncertainty over trade costs induces a risk–return trade-off in sourcing, leading importers to reallocate toward domestic production or more reliable partners. Quantitatively, food importers retreat most from trade, reallocate resources to agriculture, and face higher food insecurity.
Time
Wednesday, 01.07.26 - 12:00 PM - 01:15 PM
Topic
"Trade Risk and Food Security"
Speaker
https://profiles.laps.yorku.ca/profiles/aadamo/
Location
Juridicum, Adenauerallee 24-42
Room
Faculty Room
Reservation
not required
Organizer
Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics
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