We develop a model of international trade and geopolitical disputes [...]. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations to avoid war. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors [...] depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. We provide a simple procedure to estimate these factors in a model of trade calibrated to current data. This approach is then used to quantify the geoeconomic factors characterizing the US-China relationship. We find that the growing US dependence to Chinese products and markets over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. In this context, decoupling [...] may offer geopolitical benefits. Yet, the analysis highlights a fundamental security dilemma: because export and import dependencies influence bargaining power [...], decoupling may reduce the diplomatic concessions needed to maintain peace but can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation.